from John Kevill
Managing Director, Capital Markets
No shortage of dynamic discussion from my Urban Development and Mixed Use Council (silver flight.) It is a diverse group of real estate pros that includes lawyers, architects, developers, lenders, REIT execs, fund managers, private equity and offshore investors among others (so you can image the tremendous range of opinions on all topics).
Everyone is trying to pinpoint, “Where are we in the recovery cycle?” Interestingly enough, the answer seems to depend almost entirely on what you do for a living. Private equity firms and smaller owners and lenders feel we are only about 25% through the recession, institutional owners sit are slightly higher, economists and researchers are more bullish at 45% and the service providers say we are 75% of the way along— reinforces that this is a recession we all feel in a very individual ways.
I heard a couple of other interesting comments. One council member referred to the pending recovery not in the common “V”, “W” or “U” shapes, but rather as a “jagged up and down line with an upward bias”. After the description got some razzing from fellow council members, the general consensus felt like an agreement that the markets would indeed come back in a slow steady recovery, but that it would certainly not be smooth.
Also, this morning’s economist made a point that this recovery would be operationally driven as opposed to financially driven like the last recovery.
It will be interesting to compare notes with other councils tonight.
